Thucydides Trap: A few fragmented thoughts
President Xi invoked Thucydides Trap, yet again. Therefore, it is now back in fashion, yet again. This has left me perplexed. I have read Graham Allison's book and I get it: A rising power makes the hegemon uneasy and this leads to war, just as it did in the Peloponnesian War. But what I don't get is why Xi is talking about it and why everyone else is getting excited. For starters, let's set the record straight: Despite the historical reputation of Athens, it was Sparta which was the hegemon and Athens was the rising power, and at the end of the war, Athens lost. Assuming that Xi, like everyone else, sees China as the rising power, he should know better than invoking Thucydides. Besides, Thucydides knew better than projecting history to the future and making predictions. It is a story we want to tell ourselves, but there is no inevitability that history has to play out in a certain way. It never does. For example, Allison's thesis draws much from the Britain vs Germany ...