The new wars

It is hard to explain my feelings about the war in Iran. 

I have no particular love for the regime, growing up, as I did, with the shadow of Khomeini's fatwa on Salman Rushdie. But like many others, I saw the Islamic Revolution as a part of anti-colonial movement. When Saddam, backed by the Americans, attacked Iran, my sympathies were with the Iranians. That Persia/ Iran is standing on a civilisation thousands of years old, and with which, as a Bengali, my own has a great affinity, was an idea that was ingrained in my thinking. It was an integral part of how I think: East vs West, Coloniser vs the Colonised, Old world vs the New world!

But I see Trump's war not so much against Iran but against the rules that we were all supposed to follow, and this is why I am even more upset. Since when 'eliminating' a country's leadership by assassination become a legitimate thing to talk about? If they didn't know that they were starting a forever war, they were stupid: And one thing I know about them is that they are not stupid. Therefore, I am forced to conclude that the war aims here do not concern the Iranian people, but the American ones. George W may have misled them, but he took Congress' approval and that of his major allies before going into Iraq. Trump administration did neither; they have even dragged their Arab allies, who allow them to use their land for American bases and have therefore become legitimate targets for retaliation, without telling them in advance. 

I am writing this as I worry. I noted with concern that Turkey is now claiming that a missile has been shot down by its air defences and they have a right to respond. The last thing one wants is the Turky - and by extension - NATO getting involved. What was meant to be a 'combat operation' (not war) has become a regional war already, and all we need is NATO - and then Russia as a next step - into it. Long shot, I hope, but things like that happened before.

And, in this, lies the lesson, which people who do not read history easily misses. Starting a war is easy, but not ending it. My private joke about start-ups - no one would start a business if they knew how hard it is to close one - applies to wars as well. Iran can't stop, even if they are being decimated: There is no incentive for them to stop. Trump can't stop because he did not know why he started it in the first place. Everyone else wants them to stop, but they don't know where to start. Besides, war is really profitable business.

However, there are some winners for me here. Keir Starmer, for the first time, did something Prime Ministerial. I am happy he is no Winston Churchill. In fact, his refusal to get drawn in makes the affair look like America's own Suez crisis (Trump will do well to look that up!). I was impressed by his 'we don't believe in regime change from the air' comment, though I have now figured that the expression was lent to him by the questioning MP and, like a good politician, he latched onto it. Pedro Sanchez is another one - he said no better than Starmer. I hoped others, like the Australian PM, would follow his example, but in today's world, political courage is in short supply. 

But my fear is also my hope. If this stops short of the worst, things will change. There are a number of things to hope for. Global South is a largely ephemeral idea, but feels real at moments like this. Western Alliance is now broken, and that can turn into a good thing for Europe: Its pampered, work-shy populace may now finally wake up and assume its responsibility. India will be hit badly by the disruption of energy supply and hopefully would realise that Trump-hugging is not enough. Iran's liberals may have an opening after the Bombs stop falling and find their own way out to reject the imperial plan of installing a king above them. So on, and so forth: To be alive is to hope.