Rain of ruin, or..

 I am trying to ascertain what historical moment we are living through.

Should we compare this with 27th May 1905, the Battle of Tsushima, the moment when the anti-colonial self-confidence emerged in Asia? That an underdog - Japan then, Iran now - can win in an assymetric battlefield is an important lesson. Iran hasn't really won, or can win, but that it did not submit easily will count. This would change the calculus of the alliances: An Arab leader today would be circumspect about its alliances now. Whatever started after Saddan Hussain's invasion of Kuwait would now end.

Of course, the United States can destroy Iran with its superior firepower, but it can only do so at a great cost. Bringing all its firepower in the Middle East may open the space for China in South China sea, and even Russia in Europe, and indeed, this could spiral into a world at war. I am hoping that won't come to pass, a situation when no one would win. But if Marco Rubio was lecturing the European leaders in Munich about the need to revive Western Colonialism, he has now proved the point an wise man once made: History repeats, first as a tragedy, then as a farce!

But there are other important lessons in the war so far. That a bombing war doesn't really work with a determined opponent, fighting a strategic one. I am fascinated how Iranian leadership is using geography against the American bombast! 

There is a Gibbonian insight here: The American leadership is too woke, too comfortable and too removed, against a battle-hardened leadership with real combat experience. Trump is fighting a 'Like-war' on Truth Social, whereas the Iranians are fighting for their existence at the battlefield - this is assymetric indeed!

Nothing that is happening is unexpected: This exact scenario might have been considered many times over since the days of Carter! In fact, if anything, things have only gotten more complicated: Saddam is now gone, UAE is now a global economic hub and the world's reliance on the Oil and Gas flowing through the Strait of Hormuz has only increased. Yet, the American strategists walked into this nightmare scenario as if there were no other option. Trump is a factor, but that is not the only thing. I would believe the echo chamber that the Americans live in - the presumption that everyone is trying to live an American life and they would easily give up their dignity to get a chance to live in the empire of Trump! Yes, in the same empire where masked agents roam around freely to shoot people and deport children, etc. And, most of all, where a person like Trump can become the leader: If democracy is like that, the Ayatollahs seem like a better option!

Back to bombs one final time. The bombing of Germany, as historians argued, alientated the German population. It might have worked in Japan, but it needed a nuclear bomb. It failed in Vietnam, it failed in Afghanistan and eventually it failed in Iraq. And, by now, the citizens of the so-called Western countries can't bear the thought of queuing up at the Petrol Pump, and therefore, ground invasion is out of question once the poor Kurds refused to die to preserve Trump's honour. I want the war to end like everyone else, but fascinated - the Americans must be missing Saddam today!